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Horseshoe pitchers' hot hands.

¹Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, California 91711, USA. gsmith@pomona.edu

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review

|November 19, 2003

Summary

The "hot hand" fallacy may not apply to basketball, as previous shot performance doesn't influence future success. However, horseshoe pitchers experience brief "hot" and "cold" streaks, suggesting performance variability in sports.

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Psychology
Sports Science
Behavioral Economics

Background:

The "hot hand fallacy" suggests players are more likely to make subsequent shots after making previous ones.
Previous research using basketball data (Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985) found no evidence supporting the "hot hand" phenomenon.
Concerns exist regarding confounding variables in prior analyses of basketball shooting performance.

Purpose of the Study:

To re-examine the "hot hand" phenomenon in sports.
To investigate player performance streaks in a sport less prone to confounding factors.
To determine if "hot" and "cold" spells exist in athletic performance.

Main Methods:

Analyzed horseshoe pitching data, a sport with fewer confounding influences than basketball.
Examined the relationship between the results of earlier shots and subsequent shot success.
Controlled for potential confounding variables not addressed in previous basketball studies.

Main Results:

Contrary to findings in basketball, horseshoe pitchers demonstrated modest "hot" and "cold" spells.
Player performance in horseshoe pitching is influenced by the results of earlier shots.
The "hot hand" phenomenon may be present in certain sports under specific conditions.

Conclusions:

The "hot hand" phenomenon, or performance streaks, may exist in sports like horseshoe pitching.
Previous research on basketball may have overlooked crucial confounding factors.
Further research is needed to understand the conditions under which performance streaks occur in sports.

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