Tuberculosis and AIDS: European and worldwide perspectives

To examine the possible influence of AIDS and HIV infection on the epidemiology of tuberculosis in Europe and worldwide in the coming decades an analysis of the available data on the two diseases and on the transmission of the two infections in relation to the demographic structure of the population was conducted, including projections for up to the year 2025. Globally, the effects of the AIDS pandemic on the tuberculosis situation will probably be very serious, adding some 1.5 million new cases of tuberculosis annually by the year 2025 as a result of HIV infection. However, this effect for Europe in the year 2025 may be in the range of 15,000 additional cases only. The main factor determining the scale of aggravation of Tb is the age structure of the population infected, or at risk of being infected, with tubercle bacilli and HIV. Although the influence of HIV infection on tuberculosis in Europe may not be very high due to the fact that HIV infection involves mainly younger age groups it may, however, substantially postpone the elimination of tuberculosis from Europe. Therefore it seems necessary to monitor constantly all the changes in the epidemiological situation of both tuberculosis and AIDS/HIV.