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Tuberculosis incidence in developing countries with high prevalence of HIV infection
Objective:
To study the impact of the HIV epidemic on tuberculosis (TB) incidence in developing countries.
Design:
A simple mathematical model is constructed using figures from published reports to estimate the rise of TB incidence as the HIV epidemic expands.
Method:
Two groups with different risk of developing TB are identified: individuals with dual infection of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the rest of the population. The model is based on a combination of the incidence and the percentage of TB in these two groups. The expected rise in TB incidence and the percentage of TB cases that will be HIV-positive are plotted against the prevalence of HIV.
Conclusions:
Unless appropriate action is taken, TB incidence in developing countries will double as the prevalence of HIV infection reaches 13 per hundred adults.