[Analysis of factors influencing the recent decline in birth rate in Tokyo]

This study was undertaken in an attempt to find factors which affected the recent declining birth rate in Tokyo. Vital statistics of the female population, age 20-39, for the period of 1970 through 1985 for Tokyo were compared to national averages. Indices examined were birth rate, percentage of married women, birth rate for married women, and birth rate for married women by live birth order. Results thus obtained were as follows: 1. Birth rates for females aged 20-24 and 25-29 were largely dependent on percentages of married women rather than birth rates for married women both in Tokyo and in the nation as a whole, while the birth rates for females aged 30-34 and 35-39 were more dependent on birth rates for married women. 2. Percentages of married women aged 20-24 and 25-29 decreased during the observation period both in Tokyo and in the nation as a whole. 3. Birth rates for married women aged 30-34 and 35-39 dropped in the first 5 or 10 years of observation in both groups as a result of the reduction in high order live births. Thereafter, the decline changed to an upturn trend. 4. Yearly changes of birth rate, percentage of married women, birth rate for married women, birth rate for married women by live birth order, and birth rate of first child for married women appeared to have the same timing both in Tokyo and in Japan as a whole in each age category.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)