Prognostic information provided by serial measurements of brain natriuretic peptide in heart failure

Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict prognosis in heart failure patients. We aimed to evaluate if serial measurements of BNP can give additional prognostic information.

Eighty-four patients with systolic dysfunction had two measurements of BNP with an interval of 8 to 12 months and were followed in order to register the occurrence of death. The study was observational and prospectively designed. During follow-up, patients were treated according to state of the art. Physicians were kept blind to BNP levels.

The median follow-up was 1190 days. The median initial BNP level was 260.4 pg/ml and decreased to 123 pg/ml in the second measurement (P=0.001). The decrease in BNP was significantly associated with ACE-i dosage and with the use of a beta-blocker. All-cause mortality was 20.2%. Patients whose initial BNP level was above the median had a significantly higher hazard of dying (HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.06-8.26). The same was observed for those whose BNP increased between the first and the second measurement (HR 2.64, 95% CI 1.00-7.00). In multivariable analysis, baseline BNP above the median and increasing BNP were associated with shorter survival.

Higher baseline BNP and the increasing levels during follow-up were independently associated with mortality. The decrease in BNP levels was proportional to ACE-i dosage and larger among patients on beta-blockers. These results confirm the prognostic information provided by BNP determination and suggest that serial measurements give additional prognostic information.