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Consequential conditionals: invited and suppressed inferences from valued outcomes.

Jean-François Bonnefon1, Denis J Hilton

  • 1Maison de la Recherche, University of Toulouse-2, Toulouse, France. bonnefon@univ-tlse2.fr

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
|January 23, 2004
PubMed
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People infer the truth of actions based on desirable outcomes and falsity based on undesirable ones. The extremity and undesirability of outcomes strengthen these inferences, impacting conditional reasoning.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Logic

Background:

  • Conditional statements are fundamental to reasoning.
  • Consequential conditionals link actions to predicted outcomes.
  • Understanding how outcomes influence belief in conditionals is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how desirable and undesirable outcomes affect inferences about consequential conditionals.
  • To examine the impact of outcome extremity on these inferences.
  • To explore the suppression of modus ponens by consequential conditionals.

Main Methods:

  • Four experiments were conducted to test hypotheses about consequential conditionals.
  • Participants evaluated conditional statements with varying outcomes.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Modus ponens inferences were tested with and without competing consequential conditionals.

    • Main Results:

    • Desirable outcomes led to inferences supporting the antecedent's truth, while undesirable outcomes supported its falsity.
    • The extremity of outcomes amplified the strength of these inferences.
    • Undesirable consequential conditionals suppressed modus ponens, with greater suppression for more undesirable outcomes.

    Conclusions:

    • Outcome valence and extremity significantly influence conditional inference.
    • Consequential conditionals can override standard logical inferences like modus ponens.
    • Findings offer insights for mental models, probability, and necessity-based theories of reasoning.