A complex systems model approach to quantified mineral resource appraisal.

Area of Science:

• Geoscience
• Environmental Management
• Resource Economics

Background:

• Mineral resource appraisal has shifted from value-based to outcome-based procedures.
• Assessing the consequences of resource development against other management options is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• Propose complex systems modeling as a framework for mineral resource appraisal.
• Incorporate complexity into appraisal models using established methods.
• Develop reusable databases and methodologies for repeatable appraisals.

Main Methods:

• Discuss subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence, and fuzzy logic modeling.
• Utilize fuzzy logic and weights of evidence within complex systems models.
• Employ fuzzy cognitive maps, membership functions, and process association for modeling.

Main Results:

• Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most adaptable for complex systems models.
• Reusable databases and methodologies are fundamental products of new appraisals.
• The generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems.

Conclusions:

• Complex systems modeling provides a robust framework for outcome-based mineral resource appraisal.
• Integrating data as representations of complex systems maximizes information utilization.
• The proposed model framework facilitates scenario-based predictions and aids in identifying critical links in resource systems.