Trends in smoking habits: a longitudinal population study

In 1998, the UK government published a White Paper in which it set long-term targets for reducing smoking in the population. This longitudinal study aimed to examine whether progress has been made in achieving these in two adult general practice populations over an 8-year period.

Postal respiratory questionnaires, based on the European Community Respiratory Health Questionnaire, were sent to all patients registered with two practices in North West England on four occasions between 1993 and 2001. Two analyses were carried out. The first (smaller cohort) included only those subjects answering the question concerning current smoking on all four occasions, the second (larger cohort) those answering at least twice.

The smaller cohort included 2403 subjects (19.6% of all respondents). Almost one-quarter reported in all four surveys that they smoked, the highest proportion being in those aged 35-44 years. The proportion of smokers decreased from 34.2% (1993) to 30.3% (2001) (P < 0.001 for trend) and the prevalence of heavy smokers fell from 15.9 to 13.3% (P < 0.001 for trend) over the same period. There were, however, no reductions in those aged <45 years in 1993. These changes were confirmed in the larger cohort which included 7274 subjects (59.3% of respondents).

If smoking-related disease is to be reduced, it is important that adults are targeted for smoking prevention and cessation before they reach middle age. Only when such initiatives show success will smoking prevention among their children become a practical proposition.