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Updated: Aug 7, 2026

Digital PCR-based Competitive Index for High-throughput Analysis of Fitness in Salmonella
Published on: May 13, 2019
Large shifts in pathogen virulence relate to host population structure
M Boots1, P J Hudson, A Sasaki
1Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK. m.boots@sheffield.ac.uk
Pathogen evolution can shift rapidly, leading to more virulent strains. This occurs in hosts with long-lived immunity and structured populations due to evolutionary bistability, explaining rapid virulence increases.
Area of Science:
- Evolutionary biology
- Epidemiology
- Pathogen dynamics
Background:
- Virulence evolution theory predicts optimal levels based on transmission/recovery trade-offs.
- Host factors like immunity and population structure influence pathogen evolution.
- Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) has shown rapid emergence of highly virulent strains.
Purpose of the Study:
- To theoretically investigate pathogen virulence evolution in spatially structured populations with long-lived immunity.
- To explain the rapid emergence of highly virulent pathogen strains, such as RHDV.
Main Methods:
- Theoretical modeling of pathogen evolution.
- Analysis of evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured host populations.
- Consideration of host immune responses (long-lived immunity) and social structure.
Main Results:
- Evolutionary dynamics can exhibit bistability in spatially structured populations.
- This bistability allows for large, rapid shifts in pathogen virulence.
- The model explains the emergence of highly virulent RHDV strains.
Conclusions:
- Host population structure and long-lived immunity can drive rapid virulence evolution.
- Bistability in evolutionary dynamics is a key mechanism for virulence shifts.
- The findings offer insights into the emergence of novel and virulent pathogens.
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