Increasing risk of gastroschisis in Norway: an age-period-cohort analysis

The prevalence of gastroschisis in Norway, as reported to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, increased regularly and sixfold from 0.5 to 2.9 per 10,000 births during 1967-1998. The prevalence was also consistently higher among children of younger mothers. The authors used age-period-cohort analysis to assess effects of both parents' age and year of birth (parental cohorts). Mother's and father's age were included in three different regression models. Apart from a significantly higher risk at a young maternal age, the authors also found higher risk at a young paternal age (1.6-fold per 10 years' reduction in father's age, 95% confidence interval: 1.0, 2.4). The time trend was highly significant regardless of whether it was ascribed to period, mother's year of birth, or father's year of birth. However, when father's year of birth was used to describe the time trend, no apparent additional effect of father's age was found, only for mother's age. The time trend is likely caused by environmental factors. Persistently increasing risks among children of young mothers may hypothetically be related to lifestyle factors. A contribution to risk also from fathers born in more recent years or from young fathers increases the likelihood that a factor related to modern lifestyles of young couples may be related to risk.