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Updated: Aug 23, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
[The basic principles for the analytical study of epidemic-control measures in the modelling of epidemic processes]
Abstract:
For prognostication of epidemic aerogenic infections with the help of mathematical modeling the authors propose to regard the testing population as a unity of the following streams: susceptible to infection, embraced with emergency vaccination, just vaccinated, protected with the measures of specific or emergency vaccination. Each stream has its own equation which is analogous in its structure to the epidemic dynamics modeling made by O. V. Baroian and L. A. Rvachev, and besides this has correction coefficients which depict the grade of the mobility downtrend due to prophylactic measures. The model built on the bases of the proposed methods makes it possible to determine the level and dynamics of morbidity depending on the volume and efficiency of each sanitary measure described in it.
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