[Time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in Beijing]

To quantitively evaluate the associations between ambient air pollutant and daily mortality of Beijing and to supply the scientific bases for formulating control measures. Air pollutants including CO, SO2, NOx, TSP, PM10. time series analysis Poisson regression was used to evaluate the relationship between cause-specific deaths and air pollutant, considering the potential confounding factors such as seasonal and long-term patterns, meteorological factors (air temperature, air humidity), as well as adjusting the influence of flu epidemics in winter of 1998. The results showed that in single-factor Poisson regression analysis, there is a significant positive correlation between the four pollutants and daily mortality except for the relationship between TSP and coronary heart disease deaths. In multi-factor Poisson regression analysis, when SO2 increase in 100 micrograms/m3, respiratory deaths, cardiovascular and cerebro-vascular deaths, coronary heart disease deaths and chronic obstructive pulmonary deaths increased by 4.21%, 3.97%, 10.68%, 19.22% respectively. Meanwhile, each 100 micrograms/m3 increase in TSP associated with 3.19% increase in the respiratory deaths and 0.62% increase in the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths. It is suggested that air pollution is a risk factor for health and an increase of air pollution level might lead to a raise in daily mortality.