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Updated: Aug 6, 2026
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A Technical Perspective in Modern Tree-ring Research - How to Overcome Dendroecological and Wood Anatomical Challenges
Published on: March 5, 2015
Forest decline: modeling the effect of climate in tree rings
E R Cook1, A H Johnson, T J Blasing
1Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Tree Physiology
|March 1, 1987
Summary
Forest tree rings reveal growth declines unrelated to temperature changes since 1960. However, unusual temperature departures suggest some climatic influence on red spruce decline in the Appalachian Mountains.
Area of Science:
- Dendrochronology
- Forest Ecology
- Climatology
Background:
- Tree rings offer historical data on forest growth, influenced by factors like competition, age, disturbances, and climate.
- Statistical models can isolate climate's effect on tree growth, distinguishing it from other factors like pollution.
- Understanding these influences is crucial for assessing forest productivity declines.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a statistical method for creating climate response models for forest decline studies.
- To verify the time-stability of these models before forecasting tree-ring variations.
- To investigate the causes of red spruce decline in the Appalachian Mountains.
Main Methods:
- Utilized ordinary least squares regression for developing climate response models.
- Employed monthly mean temperatures to predict tree-ring indices.
- Tested model time-stability for verification before forecasting.
Main Results:
- Red spruce trees in the Appalachian Mountains showed growth declines since 1960, largely independent of mean monthly temperature changes.
- An association was found between annual ring width and significant deviations in summer and winter temperatures.
- These temperature anomalies suggest a partial climatic role in both past and current red spruce decline.
Conclusions:
- The developed statistical method allows for the assessment of climate's role in forest decline.
- While not the primary driver since 1960, climate, particularly temperature anomalies, is implicated in red spruce decline.
- Further research is needed to fully understand the interplay of climatic and non-climatic factors affecting forest health.
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