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Published on: February 1, 2020
MISCAN: estimating lead-time and over-detection by simulation
1Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, the Netherlands. g.draisma@erasmusmc.nl
Objective:
To estimate the mean lead-time and rate of over-detection associated with screening for prostate cancer with prostate-specific antigen.
Methods:
Simulation models, fitted to the results of the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, were used to predict the mean lead-time and over-detection rate in population-based screening programmes.
Results:
The mean lead-time is estimated to be 11-12 years and over-detection to occur in half the cases found by population screening. The estimates are compared with published estimates.
Conclusions:
The effect of lead-time and over-detection on the balance of positive and negative consequences of screening cannot be neglected.

