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The general pediatrician: projecting future workforce supply and requirements
Scott A Shipman1, Jon D Lurie, David C Goodman
1Department of Pediatrics, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon 97201, USA. shipmans@ohsu.edu
Pediatrics
|March 3, 2004
Summary
The number of general pediatricians is projected to significantly outpace child population growth by 2020. Future pediatricians may need to expand services or patient populations to maintain practice volumes.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Health Workforce Analysis
- Population Health
Background:
- Workforce assessments for child health physicians are being re-evaluated due to changing supply and demand.
- Previous analyses may not accurately reflect the current pediatric workforce adequacy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the national supply of practicing general pediatricians over a 20-year period (2000-2020).
- To assess the future pediatrician-to-child population ratio.
Main Methods:
- Developed a predictive model using data on the U.S. pediatrician workforce, residency graduates, and productivity.
- Incorporated demographic changes in the child population and care patterns with family practitioners.
- Analyzed time trends in pediatrician supply and the child population per pediatrician.
Main Results:
- The general pediatrician workforce is projected to increase by 64% (approx. 25,000 physicians) from 2000 to 2020.
- The child population is projected to grow by only 9% during the same period.
- Pediatrician supply is expected to grow substantially faster than the child population, contrasting with other primary care specialties.
Conclusions:
- The expansion of the general pediatrician workforce is unlikely to be significantly slowed by factors that might attenuate growth.
- Future pediatricians may need to broaden services, include young adults, or attract patients from non-pediatrician providers to maintain current practice volumes.