Effects of early health-insurance programs on European mortality and fertility trends

In this study, we examined the mortality and fertility effects of the early health-insurance programs sponsored by several European governments in the course of the demographic transition. Three sets of effects were hypothesized, and tested with data for five countries, covering the 1875-1913 period. First, although initially small, the growing health-insurance coverage of national populations accelerated longer-term downtrends in mortality. It not only expanded access to health care, but also helped in disseminating health information and awareness. Second, widening coverage also had an opposite effect on fertility; by lowering the costs of bearing and rearing children, it acted to slow the ongoing downtrend in marital fertility. Third, there was a diverse set of interactions between the mortality and fertility effects. Improved prospects for the survival of infants and children weakened parents' motivation to produce "extra" offspring to offset losses to mortality and to insure against future losses. Child survival was further enhanced by longer intervals between births and fewer children per family. However, the reduced cost of children tended to dilute these antenatal effects. Our regression results supported the expected pattern of partial effects, but simulations were needed to gauge the total impacts of health-insurance. Two sets of simulations were conducted: first, historical simulations, which closely tracked the actual experience of each sample country; second, counterfactuals, in which health-insurance coverage was set at zero for the entire time period. Comparisons of the historical and counterfactual simulations clearly indicated that health-insurance accelerated the downtrend in mortality, but slightly retarded the secular decline in marital fertility. These effects varied in magnitude, but not in direction, among the sample countries.