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[The global risk for cardiovascular disease. Who is a candidate for pharmacological prevention?]
1Klinische Kardiologie II, Herz-Zentrum Bad Krozingen, Südring 15, 79189 Bad Krozingen, Germany.
Insights
Cardiovascular events are rare individually, but risk stratification helps guide preventive treatment. Calculating the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) clarifies the absolute benefit of interventions for coronary artery disease prevention.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Preventive Medicine
- Health Economics
Context:
- Coronary artery disease (CAD) poses significant epidemiological risk, yet individual cardiovascular events are infrequent.
- Uncertainty exists regarding the optimal timing for initiating medical treatment for CAD.
- Risk factor modification yields relative risk reduction, but absolute benefit depends on global risk.
Purpose:
- To evaluate the utility of global risk stratification and Number Needed to Treat (NNT) calculations in guiding preventive treatment decisions for coronary artery disease.
- To determine acceptable NNT thresholds for primary prevention strategies.
Summary:
- Global cardiovascular risk, estimated via scoring systems, dictates the absolute benefit of preventive measures.
- The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) quantifies the usefulness of interventions, with NNT < 200 considered acceptable for primary prevention.
- Pharmacological interventions are effective for primary prevention when 10-year global risk is ≥20%, with age being a key predictor.
Impact:
- Risk stratification and NNT estimation are crucial for personalized treatment decisions in cardiovascular disease prevention.
- This approach optimizes resource allocation by focusing on individuals who will derive the greatest absolute benefit from interventions.
- Informing clinical practice guidelines for the management of cardiovascular risk factors.
Abstract:
Despite the epidemiological importance of coronary artery disease, cardiovascular events are rare from the individual viewpoint. There is considerable uncertainty when to start medical treatment. A given risk factor modification results in a relative risk reduction independent of the global risk. Therefore the global risk determines the absolute benefit of a preventive measure. The global risk can be estimated using different scoring systems. Using the global risk and the expected relative risk reduction, the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) to avoid one event or cardiac death can be calculated. The NNT is a measure for the usefulness of a preventive intervention. A NNT of < 200 appears acceptable for primary prevention. This can be achieved with pharmacological preventive strategies if the global risk of 10 years is > or = 20%. As age is one of the most important risk predictors the need for treatment at comparable risk factor constellations is age dependent. Risk stratification with estimation of the NNT is therefore important for the decision to treat or not to treat.
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