[Evaluation of the surgical risk in general surgery: usefulness of a predictive system based on statistical analysis]

1182 patients were prospectively studied in order to evaluate the surgical risk factors. Stepwise regression logistic procedure was employed for statistical analysis. Postoperative complications included death, cardiac, respiratory, hepatic and renal failure, wound infection and sepsis. Various preoperative conditions were associated with postoperative complications but some of them, as malnutrition or operations prolonged over two hours, occurred more frequently. Age did not appear as a major risk factor. The determination of surgical risk is a major problem in general surgical practice and many attempts have been realized in order to predict postoperative outcome. Clinical judgment is still nowadays fundamental but predictive scores based on statistical analysis have proved to be valid and useful tools. The authors underline the importance of surgical risk prediction in therapeutic programming, especially in the aged and in cancer patient. The surgical or non surgical option and the type of operation to be performed result from a careful evaluation of operative risk and expectancy and quality of life.