[Mortality and clinico-prognostic significance of risk factors in geriatric surgery]

A prospective study for assessment of operative risk in elderly patients was carried in 1182 adult patients, 14 yrs or more, surgically treated not for urgency during 1985 in six Italian centres. Looking for meaningful relations among prognostic factors and outcome of disease is a relevant topic in biomedical of surgical risk was the use of multiple logistic function. Anamnestic, clinical and surgical variables were "explicative" variables, while occurrence of death and postoperative complications were "response" variables. Multipathology (myocardiosclerosis, respiratory failure) frequently associated with advanced age (greater than 70 yrs) contribute to determine the prognosis in surgery of elderly patient. Stepwise logistic regression model was applied to a set of preoperative and operative factors, five of which were found to significantly correlate with death: nutritional status, renal failure, reintervention, bacterial contamination during surgery, age greater than 70 years. From our data some conclusion may be drown: it is emphasized the major role of surgical factors in affecting the postoperative risk; among clinical variables, renal failure furnishes the most relevant contribution to prognosis; advanced age itself does not substantially affect the surgical risk, its role being confounded by association with other pathologies.