Influence of climate factors on emergency visits for childhood asthma attack

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Pediatric Respiratory Medicine
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Childhood asthma attacks exhibit significant seasonal patterns.
• Understanding environmental triggers is crucial for managing pediatric asthma.
• Emergency department visits for asthma are a key indicator of disease burden.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the impact of climate variables on childhood asthma emergency visits in Tokyo.
• To identify specific meteorological factors associated with increased asthma exacerbations.
• To explore the role of seasonal factors beyond climate in asthma incidence.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 5559 emergency visits for childhood asthma at Jikei University hospitals (1998-2002).
• Comparison of visit data with 45 meteorological parameters using multiple regression and stepwise backward elimination.
• Development of predictive models including climate variables, calendar month, and day of the week.

Main Results:

• Emergency visits increased significantly with rapid decreases in barometric pressure, air temperature, and humidity, and with lower wind speeds.
• A model incorporating 12 climate variables explained 22% of visit variations, rising to 36% with calendar month and day of the week adjustments.
• A logistic regression model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC 0.91) for identifying nights with high asthma visit counts.

Conclusions:

• Climate conditions and seasonal factors significantly contribute to the number of emergency visits for childhood asthma.
• Developed models can quantify the influence of specific environmental and seasonal factors on asthma exacerbations.
• Findings provide insights for public health interventions and asthma management strategies in seasonal contexts.