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Related Experiment Videos

The increasing workload of general surgery.

Jerome H Liu1, David A Etzioni, Jessica B O'Connell

  • 1Department of Surgery, David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles, California 90064, USA. jerome8@ucla.edu

Archives of Surgery (Chicago, Ill. : 1960)
|April 14, 2004
PubMed
Summary

The aging US population will significantly increase the general surgery workload by 31.5% by 2020. This growing demand presents challenges for surgeons to maintain quality care.

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Area of Science:

  • Health Services Research
  • Surgical Outcomes
  • Population Health

Background:

  • The US population aged 65 and older is rapidly expanding, representing the fastest-growing demographic.
  • Older individuals are major consumers of healthcare services, posing challenges to the healthcare system.
  • The aging demographic necessitates proactive planning for healthcare demands, particularly in surgical specialties.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the future workload of general surgery in the United States.
  • To quantify the impact of population aging on surgical demand.
  • To forecast the increase in general surgery operations by 2020.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey and National Survey of Ambulatory Surgery for surgical rates.

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  • Employed US Census Bureau data for population projections.
  • Linked surgical data with population data and used relative-value units to estimate workload.

    • Main Results:

    • The overall general surgery workload is projected to increase by 31.5% between 2000 and 2020.
    • Population growth is estimated at 18% during the same period.
    • The increase in surgical workload varied by procedure category, ranging from 19.9% to 40.3%.

    Conclusions:

    • A substantial rise in general surgery workload is anticipated due to the aging population.
    • Current projections may underestimate future demand, necessitating conservative planning.
    • Developing strategies to manage increased surgical demand while ensuring patient care quality is crucial for general surgeons.