A statistical approach to the regional use of critical loads

The premise of this paper is that: (1) effects of spatial heterogeneity of watershed response to acid deposition must be considered when models are used to set abatement policies, and (2) the evaluation of critical chemical values is a better measure off the effects of abatement policies than the comparison of deposition values to critical loads. The authors used Monte Carlo methods to apply a site-specific version of the RAINS-Lake-Model to a regional data set from The Netherlands. Statistical methods were then used to identify the important parameters affecting the spatial and temporal response, i.e. a change in pH, of watersheds to acid deposition and a subset of sensitive and insensitive watersheds were derived. The results show that the failure to subset a region into sensitive and insensitive zones may result in an erroneous estimation of the effect of abatement policies based on critical loads alone.