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Predictive modeling of effects under global change.

R N Kickert1, G Tonella, A Simonov

  • 1Ecology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA. rn_kickert@pnl.gov

Environmental Pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|April 20, 2004
PubMed
Summary

This paper reviews global computer simulation models for assessing environmental and societal impacts of global change. It highlights uncertainties in current models and suggests future directions for ecological risk assessment and policy decisions.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Ecology
  • Computer Modeling

Background:

  • Global change presents complex ecological, environmental, and societal challenges.
  • Accurate assessment of these impacts requires sophisticated simulation models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present the status of global computer simulation models for evaluating global change consequences.
  • To review the state of the science regarding environmental and societal impacts.
  • To discuss integrated impact assessment using multiple sector models.

Main Methods:

  • Review of existing computer simulation models for ecological, environmental, and societal impacts.
  • Synopsis of the current scientific understanding of global change impacts.
  • Inclusion of models for vegetation, soil, bio-geochemistry, water, wildlife, land use, and multiple global sectors.

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Main Results:

  • Models exist for various responses to climate change, CO2, air pollutants, and UV-B radiation.
  • Global multiple sector models are available for integrated impact assessment.
  • Information on software and hardware requirements is provided where available.

Conclusions:

  • Existing models face considerable uncertainties due to input data and dose-response relationships.
  • Effective ecological risk assessment for policy decisions is hampered by these uncertainties.
  • New developments in modeling and analysis are crucial for the 21st century.