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Updated: Aug 17, 2026

Estimating Virus Production Rates in Aquatic Systems
Published on: September 22, 2010
Predicting quarantine failure rates
1Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6. tday@mast.queensu.ca
Abstract:
Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases.
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