Population ageing in Lebanon: current status, future prospects and implications for policy

During the past three decades, fast declines in fertility and mortality in Lebanon have created a compressed demographic transition, a growing trend towards survival into later life, and a larger proportion of elderly people in the population. Projections show that people aged 65 years and over are expected to constitute 10.2% of the population by 2025. Nevertheless, changes to the structure and composition of the population remain unmatched by any corresponding increase in support measures either through formal channels such as pension plans or through health or socioeconomic security measures such as the provision of subsidies for health care, home help or any form of nursing care. This means that an older person is forced to be dependent upon family support if it exists. We examine demographic trends of population ageing in Lebanon between 1970 and 1995 and provide projections until 2025. Variations in population ageing within the country are also considered. We also assess health care and social policy implications of demographic changes in the context of health and economic sector reforms initiated recently by the state, and explore their impact upon the expanding population of elderly people.