Simulation modelling for HIV infection and AIDS

In this paper we describe a computer model developed jointly by mathematicians and medical consultants. The aim of the model is to provide practical help to people involved with caring for HIV-infected patients. The program is easy to use and can provide a wide variety of output, ranging from resource requirements and costs to detailed clinical information. The model uses the technique of computer simulation to study the progression of HIV-related diseases in a set of patients. The model can help planners concerned with the broad issues of health care provision, as well as clinical users whose main interest is the management and treatment of individual patients. The model is currently being tested in the Department of Genito-Urinary Medicine in the Royal Victoria Hospital, Bournemouth. The potential capability of the model is illustrated by some results from program runs using data from a set of Bournemouth patients. We argue that the power and flexibility of computer simulation as a technique for dealing with uncertainty and variability is especially appropriate in the case of HIV and AIDS.