[Demography of oncologic practitioners working in France. Projection elements for the next 30 years]

In the early eighties, French medical regulatory authorities have decided to control the access to medical studies by restricting the number of admittances. From that date, the numerous clauses was unchanged, leading the physicians to observe a deep reduction in the number of young oncologists. The goal of this study was to define precisely the demography of French medical oncologists and the needs for new specialists. Our model used data from a wide range of sources was developed under the guidance of epidemiologists. We determined current and projected numbers and demographics of oncologists in France workforce from 2002 to 2032. The number of oncologists and physicians implicated in oncology (organ specialists, radiotherapists and paediatricians) entering the marked in the next few years will not be modified. Consequently, the number of physicians will dramatically decrease in the next 15 years resulting in a 25% global working-age population reduction. Our present analysis indicates that the number of oncologists will not be sufficient to meet future demand. Our data suggests that steps should be taken to stop the ongoing decline in the number of physicians involved in oncology and the decline of physicians in training. Consideration should be given to actions designed to increase the number of oncologists in practise in the years ahead.