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Related Experiment Videos

Can extinction rates be estimated without fossils?

Emmanuel Paradis1

  • 1Laboratoire de Paléontologie, Paléobiologie & Phylogénie, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Université Montpellier II, F-34095 Montpellier Cédex 05, France. paradis@isem.univ-montp2.fr

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|June 5, 2004
PubMed
Summary

Estimating species extinction rates using molecular phylogenies is challenging. While molecular data can estimate speciation rates, extinction rate estimation is often biased, especially with high extinction rates.

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Phylogenetics
  • Computational biology

Background:

  • Molecular phylogenies are increasingly used to infer evolutionary dynamics.
  • Estimating speciation and extinction rates from phylogenies is crucial for understanding diversification.
  • The accuracy of these estimates, particularly for extinction rates, requires careful statistical assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To statistically evaluate the performance of the birth-death model for estimating speciation and extinction rates.
  • To compare the accuracy of rate estimation using molecular phylogenies versus data incorporating fossils.
  • To identify biases and limitations in current phylogenetic methods for diversification analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Simulation-based approach to generate large datasets of lineage diversification.

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  • Wide range of speciation and extinction rate values were simulated.
  • Comparison of rate estimators with and without simulated fossil data.

    • Main Results:

    • Estimators incorporating fossil data performed significantly better than those relying solely on molecular phylogenies.
    • Speciation rate estimation was generally accurate with molecular data, especially for larger phylogenies, but biased under high extinction rates.
    • Extinction rate estimation showed bias across various scenarios, with surprisingly less bias observed in medium-sized trees.

    Conclusions:

    • Fossil data significantly improves the accuracy of estimating speciation and extinction rates.
    • Molecular phylogenies alone can provide reliable speciation rate estimates but are prone to bias for extinction rates, particularly in high-extinction scenarios.
    • Careful interpretation of diversification analyses is recommended, considering potential biases in rate estimations.