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Are comparative risk judgements consistent across time and events?

James A Shepperd1, Marie Helweg-Larsen, Ligia Ortega

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Florida, Gainesville 32611-2250, USA. shepperd@ufl.edu

Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin
|June 17, 2004
PubMed
Summary

People tend to be overly optimistic about their personal risk compared to others. Research shows these risk judgments are consistent over time, with experience influencing this consistency.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Social Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Individuals frequently exhibit unrealistic optimism, underestimating personal risks relative to others.
  • Comparative risk judgments, where individuals assess their risk compared to a general 'other,' are a common cognitive bias.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the temporal and cross-event consistency of comparative risk judgments.
  • To examine the moderating role of experience on the consistency of these judgments.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies were conducted to assess consistency in comparative risk judgments.
  • The influence of personal experience on judgment consistency was analyzed across both studies.

Main Results:

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  • Strong evidence for temporal consistency in comparative risk judgments was found.
  • Some evidence for cross-event consistency was observed, moderated by experience.
  • Experience initially decreased consistency but led to greater consistency in later judgments.

Conclusions:

  • Comparative risk judgments demonstrate notable consistency over time.
  • Personal experience plays a crucial role in shaping the stability and variability of risk perceptions.
  • Reconciling consistent and variable aspects of risk judgment is essential for understanding this cognitive bias.