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Diversity in pathogenicity can cause outbreaks of meningococcal disease

Nico Stollenwerk1, Martin C J Maiden, Vincent A A Jansen

  • 1School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway-University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, United Kingdom.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|June 26, 2004
PubMed

Insights

Bacterial meningitis outbreaks may be driven by diversity within Neisseria meningitidis strains. Mathematical modeling and disease data suggest varying pathogenicity explains unpredictable outbreaks of this serious infection.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Microbiology

Background:

  • Neisseria meningitidis causes meningitis and septicemia globally.
  • Meningococcal disease outbreaks are unpredictable, despite widespread asymptomatic carriage.
  • The reasons for outbreak occurrence in carrier populations remain unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between bacterial population diversity and meningococcal disease outbreaks.
  • To model how varying pathogenicity of bacterial strains influences disease epidemiology.

Main Methods:

  • A stochastic mathematical model was developed to simulate Neisseria meningitidis dynamics.
  • The model incorporated strains with differing disease-causing potentials.
  • Notification data for meningococcal disease was analyzed and compared to other bacterial infections.

Main Results:

  • The model demonstrated distinct outbreaks when pathogenic strain potential was low, with a power-law size distribution.
  • A high variance-to-mean ratio was observed in simulated and real meningococcal disease data.
  • This ratio was significantly higher for meningococcal disease compared to other bacterial invasive diseases.

Conclusions:

  • Bacterial strain diversity, specifically in pathogenicity, is a plausible driver of meningococcal disease outbreaks.
  • Mathematical modeling provides insights into the epidemiological patterns of infectious diseases.
  • Further research into strain variation is crucial for understanding and predicting Neisseria meningitidis outbreaks.

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