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Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.

Shaobing Peng1, Jianliang Huang, John E Sheehy

  • 1Crop, Soil, and Water Sciences Division, International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|July 1, 2004
PubMed
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Global warming significantly impacts rice production. Increased nighttime temperatures, a result of climate change, directly decrease rice yields by 10% per degree Celsius during the dry season.

Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Climate Change Research
  • Agronomy

Background:

  • Projected global warming impacts on crop yields are often estimated using indirect simulation models.
  • Direct studies assessing observed climate change effects on crop growth and yield are crucial for accurate impact assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To directly investigate the relationship between observed temperature changes and rice yield.
  • To provide empirical evidence of climate change impacts on rice production.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of weather data from 1979-2003 at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) Farm to identify temperature trends.
  • Correlation analysis of rice grain yield data from irrigated field experiments (1992-2003) with temperature variations.

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Main Results:

  • Annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures at IRRI Farm increased by 0.35°C and 1.13°C respectively between 1979-2003.
  • A significant negative correlation was found between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January-April).
  • Rice grain yield decreased by 10% for every 1°C rise in growing-season minimum temperature; maximum temperature had no significant effect.

Conclusions:

  • Increased nighttime temperatures due to global warming directly reduce rice yields.
  • This study provides direct evidence linking rising minimum temperatures to decreased rice production, highlighting the vulnerability of this staple crop to climate change.