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Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.
Shaobing Peng1, Jianliang Huang, John E Sheehy
1Crop, Soil, and Water Sciences Division, International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines.
Summary
Global warming significantly impacts rice production. Increased nighttime temperatures, a result of climate change, directly decrease rice yields by 10% per degree Celsius during the dry season.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Change Research
- Agronomy
Background:
- Projected global warming impacts on crop yields are often estimated using indirect simulation models.
- Direct studies assessing observed climate change effects on crop growth and yield are crucial for accurate impact assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To directly investigate the relationship between observed temperature changes and rice yield.
- To provide empirical evidence of climate change impacts on rice production.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of weather data from 1979-2003 at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) Farm to identify temperature trends.
- Correlation analysis of rice grain yield data from irrigated field experiments (1992-2003) with temperature variations.
Main Results:
- Annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures at IRRI Farm increased by 0.35°C and 1.13°C respectively between 1979-2003.
- A significant negative correlation was found between rice grain yield and mean minimum temperature during the dry cropping season (January-April).
- Rice grain yield decreased by 10% for every 1°C rise in growing-season minimum temperature; maximum temperature had no significant effect.
Conclusions:
- Increased nighttime temperatures due to global warming directly reduce rice yields.
- This study provides direct evidence linking rising minimum temperatures to decreased rice production, highlighting the vulnerability of this staple crop to climate change.