Clinical and laboratory parameters in predicting chronic urticaria duration: a prospective study of 139 patients

Despite the disabling nature of chronic urticaria (CU), little is known about the disease's duration or the efficacy of adopting aggressive therapeutic regimens such as cyclosporine A.

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether parameters such as angioedema, autologous serum test, anti-thyroid antibodies, and total IgE could predict both CU duration and severity.

One hundred and thirty-nine patients suffering from CU were prospectively followed over a 5-year period for disease duration, severity and the presence of angioedema. Also investigated was the association between these clinical parameters and the subsequent detection of autologous serum test, anti-thyroid antibodies, and total IgE.

CU lasted over 1 year in more than 70% of cases and in 14% it still existed after 5 years. Angioedema co-existed or appeared during the course of CU in 40% of patients and was associated with disease duration. Autologous serum test and anti-thyroid antibodies were found positive in 28 and 12% of patients, respectively, compared to none of normal individuals, P = 0.001. CU duration was associated with the presence of both autologous serum test and anti-thyroid antibodies; however, autologous serum test and not anti-thyroid antibodies was found in association with CU severity.

We demonstrate for the first time that CU duration is associated with clinical parameters such as severity and angioedema, and with laboratory parameters such as autologous serum test and anti-thyroid antibodies. The ability to predict CU duration may facilitate decisions regarding the possible early initiation of cyclosporine A as a means by which to reduce disease severity and duration.