Sterilization: past, present, future

Globally, sterilization protects more couples from pregnancy than any other contraceptive method. However, use of sterilization has grown only gradually and annual rates of adoption remain low. The high prevalence of sterilization can be explained by its excellent continuation rate, its appeal to a broad age range at the time of adoption, and its long history of availability. International patterns show that sterilization users are concentrated in the two large countries of China and India, but numerous smaller countries also have high proportions of couples using the method. Four personal characteristics differentiate its use within each country: age, parity, residence, and sex. A new projection method indicates that approximately 159 million sterilization adoptions are expected between 1990 and 2000, half of them in China. Most future sterilization users will be found where they have been in the past, due to their concentration in China and India and to the large carry-over of current users in all countries. Projections for sterilization are more dependable than are those for other contraceptive methods, because most current users are young enough to remain in the pool of active users for 10 years. They constitute a large component of the expected total in the year 2000--about 269 million users, or 29 percent of all couples.