Prediction of chemical carcinogenicity from molecular structure

Carcinogens represent a serious threat to human health. In vivo determination of carcinogenicity is time-consuming and expensive, thus in silico models to predict chemical carcinogenicity are highly desirable for virtual screening of compound libraries of both pharmaceutically and other commercially interesting molecules. In the present study, a PLS-DA (partial least squares discriminant analysis) model was developed to predict carcinogenicities in each of four rodent models: male mouse (MM), female mouse (FM), male rat (MR), and female rat (FR). The data set that was used contained over 520 compounds from both the NTP and the FDA databases. All the models were built from the same molecular descriptor system, which is based on atom typing [Sun, H. J. Chem. Inf. Comput. Sci. 2004, 44, 748-757], enabling the comparison of atomic contributions to carcinogenicity with respect to species and gender. Using four components, the models were able to achieve excellent fitting and prediction, with r(2) = 0.987 and q(2) = 0.944 for MM, r(2) = 0.985 and q(2) = 0.950 for FM, r(2) = 0.989 and q(2) = 0.962 for MR, and r(2) = 0.990 and q(2) = 0.965 for FR. The models were further validated by response permutation testing and external validation, and the results indicated that the models were both statistically significant and predictive. Variable influence on projection (VIP) analysis identified the key atom types and fragments that contributed to carcinogenicities and response differences across species and gender.