Transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum

Recent models of malaria have been developed by Gupta and her co-workers. A frequent assumption used to illustrate these models is that levels of malaria are controlled by lifelong strain-specific immunity. In this article, Allan Saul examines the predictions this model makes about the equilibrium values of parasite prevalence and the dynamics of an epidemic following the introduction of a new strain. He reaches the conclusion that the stability of malaria makes long-term strain-specific immunity highly improbable, thus rendering models requiring lifelong strain-specific immunity unlikely to be of relevance in most epidemiological contexts.