Predicting the effect of livestock inputs of E. coli on microbiological compliance of bathing waters

Three alternative approaches to predicting delivery of faecal indicators from livestock sources to surface water in the catchment of the River Irvine, Ayrshire, Scotland, are described. These are a soil transport model which assumes all E. coli are transported through the soil, a regression model using observed E. coli concentrations in surface waters, and a distributed catchment model (PAMIMO). Each of these is linked to a simple group of equations describing inputs of E. coli from livestock to land, transport and inactivation in the river Irvine and mixing and inactivation in the sea. The models predict E. coli content of bathing water for Irvine beach. The regression model gives the best predictions of bathing water quality. The low values predicted by the soil transport model suggests that preventing surface runoff of faecal indicators from livestock would provide an adequate solution to the problem of bathing water contamination.