A study of mortality patterns at a tyre factory 1951-1985: a reference statistic dilemma

The general and cancer mortalities of rubber workers at a large tyre factory were studied in an area of marked regional variation in death rates.

Three quinquennial intakes of male rubber workers engaged between January 1946 and December 1960 formed a composite cohort of 6454 men to be followed up. Over 99% were successfully traced by December 1985. The cohort analysis used both national and local rates as reference statistics for several causes.

Between 1951 and 1985, a national standardized mortality ratio (SMRN) of 101 for all causes (based on 2556 deaths) was noted, whereas the local standardized mortality ratio (SMRL) was only 79. For all cancers, the figures were 115 (SMRN) and 93 (SMRL), for stomach cancer they were 137 (SMRN) and 84 (SMRL), and for lung cancer they were 121 (SMRN) and 94 (SMRL). No outright excesses against the national norm were observed for other cancers except for larynx, brain and central nervous system and thyroid cancer and the leukaemias. Excesses were statistically significant for cancer of the gallbladder and the bile ducts, for silicotuberculosis (SMRN = 1000) and for the pneumoconioses (SMRN = 706). Deaths from cerebrovascular diseases, chronic bronchitis and emphysema showed statistically significant deficits using either norm.

These results from a large factory cohort study of rubber workers, followed for over three decades, demonstrate the marked discrepancy that can result from using only one reference statistic in areas of significant variation in mortality patterns.