A proposed scoring system for predicting mortality in melioidosis

Allen C Cheng1, Susan P Jacups, Nicholas M Anstey

  • 1Menzies School of Health Research and Northern Territory Clinical School, Flinders University, Casuarina, Australia. allenc@menzies.edu.au

Insights

This study developed a simple scoring system to predict mortality in patients with melioidosis, caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei. A higher melioidosis score, based on clinical and lab findings, indicates increased risk of death.

Area of Science:

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Clinical Medicine
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Melioidosis, caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, has a high mortality rate despite advances in antibiotic treatment.
  • Identifying patients at higher risk of death from acute melioidosis is crucial for timely intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a simple scoring system using readily available clinical and laboratory data to predict mortality in acute melioidosis patients.
  • To identify key predictors of mortality in melioidosis at the time of hospital admission.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective data collection from October 1989 to June 2002 from patients with culture-confirmed melioidosis.
  • Selection of variables reflecting organ dysfunction available at admission, including clinical findings and baseline laboratory tests.
  • Development of a melioidosis score based on pneumonia, age, serum urea, serum bilirubin, lymphocyte count, and serum bicarbonate.

Main Results:

  • Mortality was predicted by pneumonia, age, serum urea, serum bilirubin, lymphocyte count, and serum bicarbonate.
  • A melioidosis score of ≤3 was associated with 8.6% mortality (n=140).
  • A melioidosis score of ≥4 was associated with a significantly higher mortality of 44.6% (n=112).

Conclusions:

  • The developed melioidosis scoring system can identify patients at higher risk of death.
  • This score may aid in targeting intensive interventions, such as ICU admission and early meropenem use, for high-risk patients.
  • External validation of the scoring system is recommended.

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