Modelling 99Tc concentrations in Fucus vesiculosus from the north-east Irish Sea

In 1994 there were substantial increases in the quantity of 99Tc discharged into the north-east Irish Sea from BNFL Sellafield (UK), concomitant with improvements in waste treatment procedures. As a consequence, the concentration of 99Tc observed in seawater and biota samples, taken from the Irish Sea coastline, increased significantly. Elevated concentrations were also reported in Dutch, Danish, Norwegian, Swedish and Arctic waters in subsequent years. In the present study a simple numerical model was developed and applied to time-series data of 99Tc concentrations in the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus, collected from three UK sites in the vicinity of Sellafield (St. Bees, Heysham, Port William). The model considered site-specific scaling effects, lag times, previous discharge history and potential seasonal variation in uptake. In general, there was a good fit between predicted and observed concentrations, but the degree of uncertainty varied inversely with the frequency of sampling. We did not observe a significant seasonal variation. The modelled lag times to the three sites were consistent with transport times based on observations of the water column distribution of 99Tc. The model was applied to a variety of discharge scenarios, reflecting current discussion on the future management of 99Tc releases. Concentrations in Fucus reached asymptotic values in 3-10 years, depending on the scenario and sampling site under consideration.