Markovian model of growth and histologic progression in prostate cancer

Models, based on bio-physical and biological considerations, may be very helpful as support tools for traditional diagnostic methodologies and interpretation of statistical data in oncology. This is particularly true when the neoplastic progression and differentiation are rather simple and regular, such as in the case of prostatic adenocarcinomas. Using clinical data as a "statistical ensemble," we propose here a Markovian model to forecast the tumor progression. After validation with clinical data, the model is applied to the determination of the temporal evolution of the risk of metastasis.