Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Estimating time and size of bioterror attack.

Johan Walden1, Edward H Kaplan

  • 1Yale School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8200, USA.

Emerging Infectious Diseases
|August 25, 2004
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Related Concept Videos

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Optimal Evaluation Policies to Identify Students with Reading Disabilities.

Socio-economic planning sciences·2025
Same author

Scaling SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations to population estimates of infection.

Scientific reports·2022
Same author

Predicting daily COVID-19 case rates from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations across a diversity of wastewater catchments.

FEMS microbes·2022
Same author

Modeling local coronavirus outbreaks.

European journal of operational research·2021
Same author

Snapshot Models of Undocumented Immigration.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·2020
Same author

Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for residential college populations.

Health care management science·2020
Same journal

Detection of and Early Genomic Insights into Chikungunya Virus, Bolivia, 2025.

Emerging infectious diseases·2026
Same journal

Household Transmission of Enterovirus D68, Washington and Oregon, United States, 2022-2024.

Emerging infectious diseases·2026
Same journal

New World Ocular Dirofilariasis Caused by Dirofilaria repens Infection, United States.

Emerging infectious diseases·2026
Same journal

Angiostrongylus cantonensis Rat Lungworm Detected in Rats, Madagascar, 2022-2023.

Emerging infectious diseases·2026
Same journal

Human Pulmonary Dirofilariasis,
North Queensland, Australia, 2023<sup>1</sup>.

Emerging infectious diseases·2026
Same journal

Trends in Congenital Syphilis Cases by Maternal Country of Birth, Spain, 2016-2024.

Emerging infectious diseases·2026
See all related articles

Rapidly estimating bioterror attack size and time is crucial for forecasting medical needs. A new Bayesian method, demonstrated with a simulated anthrax attack, offers a simple spreadsheet-based solution for real-time analysis.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Biosecurity
  • Public Health Preparedness

Background:

  • Bioterrorism poses significant public health challenges requiring rapid response.
  • Accurate estimation of attack parameters is vital for effective medical resource allocation and public health interventions.
  • Existing methods may lack the speed or simplicity required for real-time bioterror event management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and present a real-time Bayesian approach for estimating bioterror attack size and timing.
  • To provide a method that enables short-run forecasting of symptomatic individuals requiring medical care.
  • To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach using simulated bioterror attack data.

Main Methods:

  • A Bayesian statistical framework was employed for real-time analysis.

Related Experiment Videos

  • The method was applied to data from a simulated anthrax attack scenario.
  • The approach was designed for simplicity, suitable for implementation in standard spreadsheet software.

    • Main Results:

    • The Bayesian approach successfully estimated key parameters of the simulated bioterror attack in real time.
    • The method facilitated short-run forecasts of the number of individuals likely to become symptomatic.
    • The simulation demonstrated the practical applicability of the model.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed Bayesian method offers a viable tool for rapid assessment of bioterror events.
    • This approach can significantly aid public health officials in forecasting medical needs and resource allocation.
    • The method's simplicity makes it accessible for widespread use in emergency preparedness.