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Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Adrian G Barnett1, Jolieke C van der Pols, Annette J Dobson

  • 1School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia. a.barnett@uq.edu.au

Abstract

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Regression Toward the Mean01:52

Regression Toward the Mean

Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when researchers try to extrapolate results...
Trimmed Mean01:10

Trimmed Mean

While measuring the mean of a data set, care needs to be taken when associating the mean to its central tendency. The same goes for the arithmetic mean, the geometric mean, or the harmonic mean. This is because the presence of a single outlier data value can significantly affect the mean. That is, the mean is sensitive to fluctuations in the data set.
Although certain measures of central tendency are not sensitive to outliers, there are alternative versions of the mean that get around the...
Weighted Mean00:57

Weighted Mean

While taking the arithmetic, geometric, or harmonic mean of a sample data set, equal importance is assigned to all the data points. However, all the values may not always be equally important in some data sets. An intrinsic bias might make it more important to give more weightage to specific values over others.
For example, consider the number of goals scored in the matches of a tournament. While computing the average number of goals scored in the tournament, it may be more important to...
Mean Absolute Deviation01:13

Mean Absolute Deviation

The mean absolute deviation is also a measure of the variability of data in a sample. It is the absolute value of the average difference between the data values and the mean.
Let us consider a dataset containing the number of unsold cupcakes in five shops: 10, 15, 8, 7, and 10. Initially, calculate the sample mean. Then calculate the deviation, or the difference, between each data value and the mean. Next, the absolute values of these deviations are added and divided by the sample size to...
Central Limit Theorem01:14

Central Limit Theorem

The central limit theorem, abbreviated as clt, is one of the most powerful and useful ideas in all of statistics. The central limit theorem for sample means says that if you repeatedly draw samples of a given size and calculate their means, and create a histogram of those means, then the resulting histogram will tend to have an approximate normal bell shape. In other words, as sample sizes increase, the distribution of means follows the normal distribution more closely.
The sample size, n, that...
Standard Error of the Mean01:13

Standard Error of the Mean

The sampling variability of a statistic is defined as how much the statistic varies from one sample to another. The sampling variability of a statistic is typically measured by measuring its standard error.The standard error of the mean is an example of a standard error. It is a unique standard deviation known as the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean. The standard error of the mean is a statistic that calculates how correctly a sample distribution represents a...