Predicting CO2 and SO2 emissions in the Baltic States through reorganization of energy infrastructure

The paper deals with predicting carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions generated by power production sector in the Baltic States in period up to year 2020. The economies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are rapidly growing therefore forecast of emissions related with this occurrence becomes very important. The Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP), one of the largest in the world, is situated in the region. Two power production scenarios are modelled to investigate changes in power sector's emissions expected as the consequences of the coming closure of Ignalina NPP. Power market was assumed to be common for all three Baltic countries and was modelled by applying the Balmorel model. The planned closure of Ignalina NPP will bring restructuring of Lithuania power production sector and will change also power transmission between countries. Predictive identified the potential of investments for new modern power generation technologies. At the same time, modelling results show in both scenarios that CO(2) and SO(2) emissions from power production in the Baltic region will increase. The increment of emissions is discussed in the context of meeting requirements of UNFCCC Kyoto protocol and EC Directives. Despite of CO(2) emissions increase the Kyoto protocol's requirements may be expected. At the same time, SO(2) formation in Lithuania power sector may exceed the limits of the EU Council Directive 2001/80/EB therefore the additional measures to control SO(2) emissions have to be investigated.