A survival predictive model in patients undergoing radical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma

Radical resection with either pancreaticoduodenectomy or pylorus-preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy is considered to be the standard treatment for most ampullary carcinomas, but the prognostic predictive model has not yet been developed.

The pretreatment, treatment, and follow-up variables of data of 47 patients undergoing radical resection for the ampullary carcinoma were analyzed to determine the favorable prognostic variables. Employing the Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative survival rates of the ampullary carcinoma were calculated. By Cox regression model, a stepwise multivariate analysis was performed to analyze the contributing factors of the survival rate, and a predictive survival equation was obtained.

With the results of the univariate analysis, the variables significantly associated with favorable prognosis were younger age (<63 years), TNM stage (stage I or II or III), and the degree of tumor differentiation (well or moderately differentiated). When the above three variables were examined as covariates by Cox regression in multivariate analysis, the TNM stage and the degree of tumor differentiation were independently correlated with the survival. A predictive survival equation obtained with the beta-coefficients of the above three variables was as follows: S (t) = [So (t)] P, P = exp (0.0234 x age - 1.8744 x tumor differentiation + 1.1576 x TNM stage)

This predictive survival equation can predict the survival and the favorable outcome of patients treated with radical resection of ampullary carcinoma.