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A discounting framework for choice with delayed and probabilistic rewards.

Leonard Green1, Joel Myerson

  • 1Department of Psychology, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130, USA. lgreen@wustl.edu

Psychological Bulletin
|September 16, 2004
PubMed
Summary

Individuals often devalue future rewards based on delay or uncertainty. Research suggests a unified hyperbolic model for discounting, but recent findings challenge a single-process explanation for these choices.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Psychology

Background:

  • Individuals consistently devalue outcomes that are delayed or uncertain.
  • Discounting behavior, the reduction in subjective value of an outcome based on time or probability, is a fundamental aspect of decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review the experimental literature on discounting of delayed and probabilistic outcomes.
  • To evaluate the consistency of findings with a single-process discounting model.
  • To discuss implications for understanding choice behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Integrative review of experimental studies on discounting.
  • Analysis of choice behavior involving delayed and probabilistic outcomes.
  • Comparison of discounting across different populations.

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Main Results:

  • A hyperbola-like function adequately describes discounting for both delayed and probabilistic outcomes.
  • Recent findings indicate inconsistencies with a single-process account of discounting.
  • Discounting behavior varies across different populations.

Conclusions:

  • While a common framework exists for analyzing delayed and probabilistic discounting, a single-process model may not fully capture the complexities observed.
  • Further research is needed to reconcile the unified hyperbolic model with emerging inconsistencies.
  • Understanding discounting is crucial for theoretical and practical applications in decision-making.