Per capita alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in Canada, 1950-98

To estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and male all-cause mortality in Canada.

The outcome measure comprised annual data on male all-cause mortality for the period 1950-98. Alcohol sales (in litres 100% alcohol) were used as proxy for per capita consumption. The data were analysed using the Box-Jenkins technique. Two models were estimated, one including only female mortality as control, the other in addition cigarette sales.

The first model yielded a significant alcohol effect that implied a 2.9%[standard error (SE) = 0.6%] increase in mortality given a 1-litre increase in consumption. This estimate coincides with that obtained for northern Europe in previous research. When cigarette sales were included in the model the alcohol effect was still statistically significant but markedly reduced, to 1.7% (SE = 0.6%).

Total mortality is a classic indicator of the general health status of the population. Its relationship with per capita consumption of alcohol supports the view that total consumption is a concern for public health.