Social worker estimations of life span in terminal cancer patients

The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the social worker estimation (SWE) of the length of survival of patients who were seen at the end stage of their terminal illness, in home-based palliative care treatment. Estimates were filled out on a form every 2 weeks during the time of the visits until the patient's discharge or death. The wording used by the social worker was the 'average survival period'. Survival was measured from the time of each survival prognostication until death from any cause. Both SWE and actual survival were categorized into 12 weeks. Then, 29 estimates were analyzed using the SPSS statistical software package. The mean and median actual survivals of the total cohort were 6.5 and 5.1 weeks, respectively. The minimum and maximum weeks of actual survival were 0.1 and 23.1, respectively. The mean and median differences between SWE and actual survival were 2.1 and 1.6 weeks, respectively (range: 18.7, minimum and maximum differences of -7.3 and 11.4 weeks, respectively). The Pearson correlation coefficient between actual survival and SWE was 0.827 (P<0.001). Overall, 59% (17/29) were correctly assigned by social worker to the correct survival categories. Our study suggests that the oncology social worker can be a valuable resource for information about the patient's prognosis of life span.