'We are faced everywhere with a growing population': demographic change and the British state, 1955-64

The early 1960s was a period of relative expansion for the welfare state, and the return to the use of planning techniques in macroeconomic policy. This has hitherto been explained by reference to a number of general causes. These have included party political electoral necessity, the need to gain popular support for the cold war by spreading the benefits of liberal capitalism, the power of welfare professionals, the growing realization that the post-war welfare state was not working as well as previously thought, and generational changes in politics and the civil service. Whilst not denying the importance of all these factors, this essay seeks to make clear the importance of another vital element in this story: the implications for the welfare state and the managed economy of the rise in the birth rate, and the perceived' population explosion', of the late 1950s and early 1960s. Statistical estimates are presented here that show just how large the implied expansion of the welfare state, and just how serious the pressure of a growing dependent population, would have been had the population predictions of the early 1930s proved to be accurate.