Prediction of daily milk, fat, and protein production by a random regression test-day model

Test-day genetic evaluation models have many advantages compared with those based on 305-d lactations; however, the possible use of test-day model (TDM) results for herd management purposes has not been emphasized. The aim of this paper was to study the ability of a TDM to predict production for the next test day and for the entire lactation. Predictions of future production and detection of outliers are important factors for herd management (e.g., detection of health and management problems and compliance with quota). Because it is not possible to predict the herd-test-day (HTD) effect per se, the fixed HTD effect was split into 3 new effects: a fixed herd-test month-period effect, a fixed herd-year effect, and a random HTD effect. These new effects allow the prediction of future production for improvement of herd management. Predicted test-day yields were compared with observed yields, and the mean prediction error computed across herds was found to be close to zero. Predictions of performance records at the herd level were even more precise. Discarding herds enrolled in milk recording for <1 yr and animals with very few tests in the evaluation file improved correlations between predicted and observed yields at the next test day (correlation of 0.864 for milk in first-lactation cows as compared with a correlation of 0.821 with no records eliminated). Correlations with the observed 305-d production ranged from 0.575 to 1 for predictions based on 0 to 10 test-day records, respectively. Similar results were found for second and third lactation records for milk and milk components. These findings demonstrate the predictive ability of a TDM.